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Methodology

How the numbers are made

Every figure on TCommunity traces back to a simple, inspectable rule. Nothing is modelled, weighted or adjusted behind the scenes.

  1. 01
    Owners report their order

    Signed-in members add the model, trim, colour, delivery centre, order date and the estimated window Tesla showed them, then update the status as it changes: VIN assigned, in transit, delivered. Orders on the community spreadsheet are synced in on a schedule too, and members can claim theirs.

  2. 02
    We measure real wait time

    For every delivered order we compute days from order date to delivery date. That single number powers every statistic on the site.

  3. 03
    Predictions use the median

    A prediction is the median wait of orders delivered in the last 180 days for the same model in your region. Medians are used instead of averages so one unusual order can’t skew the result.

  4. 04
    Small samples widen automatically

    If your region has fewer than 5 recent deliveries for that model, we widen to your country, then worldwide, and tell you we did so.

  5. 05
    Trends compare two 6-week windows

    The wait-time trend groups deliveries by the week they happened and compares the last 6 weeks against the 6 before.

  6. Limits
    What this can’t tell you
    • · Reports are self-submitted and not verified against Tesla.
    • · People who wait longer are more likely to report, which can inflate averages.
    • · Inventory purchases and custom orders are mixed together.
    • · A prediction is a typical outcome, never a guarantee.
Definitions
Wait time
Calendar days from order date to delivery date.
Days waiting
Days from the order date to today — or to the delivery date once delivered.
Avg wait
Mean wait of orders delivered in the last 180 days in the selected scope.
Typical range
25th to 75th percentile of wait times behind a prediction.
Delivered · 30d
Orders whose reported delivery date falls in the last 30 days.
Progress bar
Time elapsed inside the estimated window, floored by status.
Low sample
Fewer than 5 recent delivered reports — read with caution.
Days to VIN
Days from the order date to the day a VIN was assigned.